Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.67 - $276.80$103.67
Multi-Stage$35.18 - $38.49$36.80
Blended Fair Value$70.23
Current Price$10.10
Upside595.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-8.91%0.390.000.310.000.000.000.000.010.611.01
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-54.48%-99.00%-40.22%2.01%
Dividend Yield--4.49%0.00%4.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.13%30.64%10.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.905.563.34
Cash Retained (M)38.9438.9438.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.90-5.56-3.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.0433.3835.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.0224.0224.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.251.391.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.251.391.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.481.621.71
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.67$103.67$276.80
Upside / Downside480.87%926.40%2,640.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.5047.4050.4853.7657.2560.9762.80
Payout Ratio12.50%28.00%43.50%59.00%74.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.5613.2721.9631.7242.6554.8858.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12.1512.2712.38
Year 2 PV (M)18.4218.7719.12
Year 3 PV (M)24.3625.0625.77
Year 4 PV (M)30.0131.1632.35
Year 5 PV (M)35.3537.0638.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)724.53759.53795.86
Equity Value (M)844.82883.85924.32
Shares Outstanding (M)24.0224.0224.02
Fair Value$35.18$36.80$38.49
Upside / Downside248.27%264.36%281.05%

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