Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Magellan Financial Group Limited (MFG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.57 - $9.79$8.75
Multi-Stage$22.01 - $24.54$23.24
Blended Fair Value$16.00
Current Price$8.56
Upside86.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-21.13%1.94%0.620.651.182.132.222.031.600.870.710.79
YoY Growth---4.62%-44.73%-44.71%-4.19%9.29%26.79%83.24%23.87%-10.79%54.59%
Dividend Yield--7.24%7.67%12.40%16.47%4.12%3.50%3.01%3.75%2.45%3.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)481.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)168.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)312.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.2160.1336.08
Cash Retained (M)312.98312.98312.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.21-60.13-36.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)216.77252.85276.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)179.47179.47179.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.211.411.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.940.940.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.211.411.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.142.352.48
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-16.52%-15.52%-14.52%
Fair Value$7.57$8.75$9.79
Upside / Downside-11.55%2.23%14.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)481.05406.41343.35290.08245.07207.04213.26
Payout Ratio34.94%45.95%56.96%67.98%78.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)168.07186.75195.58197.18193.57186.34197.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-16.52%-15.52%-14.52%
Year 1 PV (M)172.26174.32176.39
Year 2 PV (M)166.41170.42174.48
Year 3 PV (M)154.76160.38166.15
Year 4 PV (M)140.14146.98154.06
Year 5 PV (M)124.44132.07140.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,191.683,387.473,592.75
Equity Value (M)3,949.684,171.644,403.90
Shares Outstanding (M)179.47179.47179.47
Fair Value$22.01$23.24$24.54
Upside / Downside157.09%171.54%186.66%

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