DDM Analysis: MEOH

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$35.27 - $58.64	$45.59
Multi-Stage	$70.30 - $77.37	$73.77
Blended Fair Value	$59.68
Current Price	$33.10
Upside	80.30%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-14.69%	-5.72%	0.71	0.71	0.60	0.35	0.54	1.58	1.51	1.45	1.41	1.39
YoY Growth	-	-	0.99%	16.97%	72.88%	-35.58%	-65.66%	4.46%	4.12%	2.73%	1.62%	8.13%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.03%	1.58%	1.30%	0.64%	1.47%	12.95%	2.57%	2.40%	3.01%	4.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	213.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	51.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)	162.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	42.76	26.72	16.03
Cash Retained (M)	162.31	162.31	162.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-42.76	-26.72	-16.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	119.56	135.59	146.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	70.03	70.03	70.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.71	1.94	2.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.73	0.73	0.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.71	1.94	2.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.44	2.67	2.82
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	-0.56%	0.44%	1.44%
Fair Value	$35.27	$45.59	$58.64
Upside / Downside	6.57%	37.73%	77.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	213.78	214.73	215.68	216.63	217.59	218.56	225.11
Payout Ratio	24.08%	37.26%	50.45%	63.63%	76.82%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	51.47	80.01	108.80	137.84	167.14	196.70	208.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	-0.56%	0.44%	1.44%
Year 1 PV (M)	74.50	75.25	76.00
Year 2 PV (M)	94.33	96.24	98.16
Year 3 PV (M)	111.28	114.67	118.13
Year 4 PV (M)	125.64	130.77	136.05
Year 5 PV (M)	137.67	144.73	152.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,379.44	4,604.11	4,837.91
Equity Value (M)	4,922.86	5,165.77	5,418.34
Shares Outstanding (M)	70.03	70.03	70.03
Fair Value	$70.30	$73.77	$77.37
Upside / Downside	112.38%	122.86%	133.76%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Methanex Corporation (MEOH)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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