DDM Analysis: MDU

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.21 - $4.26	$3.75
Multi-Stage	$8.11 - $8.96	$8.53
Blended Fair Value	$6.14
Current Price	$17.81
Upside	-65.52%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-8.47%	-2.80%	0.50	0.79	0.86	0.84	0.81	0.78	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70
YoY Growth	-	-	-36.19%	-8.82%	3.25%	2.97%	3.84%	3.68%	2.55%	2.43%	3.03%	4.48%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.97%	5.58%	7.45%	8.26%	6.76%	9.57%	7.63%	6.87%	6.90%	9.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	169.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	105.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)	63.64

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	33.86	21.16	12.70
Cash Retained (M)	63.64	63.64	63.64
(-) Cash Required (M)	-33.86	-21.16	-12.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)	29.78	42.48	50.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	205.03	205.03	205.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.21	0.25
LTM Dividend per Share	0.52	0.52	0.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.21	0.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.66	0.72	0.76
WACC / Discount Rate	7.95%	7.95%	7.95%
Growth Rate	-10.47%	-9.47%	-8.47%
Fair Value	$3.21	$3.75	$4.26
Upside / Downside	-81.97%	-78.92%	-76.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	169.30	153.27	138.75	125.61	113.71	102.94	106.03
Payout Ratio	62.41%	67.93%	73.45%	78.96%	84.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	105.66	104.11	101.91	99.18	96.06	92.64	98.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.95%	7.95%	7.95%
Growth Rate	-10.47%	-9.47%	-8.47%
Year 1 PV (M)	95.38	96.44	97.51
Year 2 PV (M)	85.53	87.45	89.39
Year 3 PV (M)	76.26	78.85	81.49
Year 4 PV (M)	67.67	70.74	73.92
Year 5 PV (M)	59.79	63.20	66.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,278.66	1,351.69	1,428.01
Equity Value (M)	1,663.28	1,748.37	1,837.09
Shares Outstanding (M)	205.03	205.03	205.03
Fair Value	$8.11	$8.53	$8.96
Upside / Downside	-54.45%	-52.12%	-49.69%

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MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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