DDM Analysis: MDC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.52 - $4.62	$4.10
Multi-Stage	$6.90 - $7.60	$7.24
Blended Fair Value	$5.67
Current Price	$62.98
Upside	-91.00%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.12%	9.76%	1.62	2.03	1.86	1.55	1.16	0.96	0.89	0.68	0.64	0.64
YoY Growth	-	-	-20.20%	9.00%	20.15%	33.17%	21.73%	7.97%	30.49%	5.72%	0.45%	0.10%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.57%	3.22%	4.79%	4.10%	1.96%	4.45%	3.29%	2.63%	2.49%	2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	73.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	41.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)	32.51

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14.76	9.22	5.53
Cash Retained (M)	32.51	32.51	32.51
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14.76	-9.22	-5.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17.75	23.29	26.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	76.46	76.46	76.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.30	0.35
LTM Dividend per Share	0.54	0.54	0.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.30	0.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.77	0.84	0.89
WACC / Discount Rate	10.01%	10.01%	10.01%
Growth Rate	-9.80%	-8.80%	-7.80%
Fair Value	$3.52	$4.10	$4.62
Upside / Downside	-94.42%	-93.50%	-92.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	73.79	67.29	61.37	55.97	51.05	46.56	47.95
Payout Ratio	55.94%	62.75%	69.56%	76.38%	83.19%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	41.28	42.23	42.69	42.75	42.47	41.90	44.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.01%	10.01%	10.01%
Growth Rate	-9.80%	-8.80%	-7.80%
Year 1 PV (M)	37.97	38.39	38.81
Year 2 PV (M)	34.51	35.28	36.06
Year 3 PV (M)	31.07	32.11	33.18
Year 4 PV (M)	27.75	29.00	30.29
Year 5 PV (M)	24.61	26.01	27.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	371.82	392.89	414.91
Equity Value (M)	527.72	553.68	580.71
Shares Outstanding (M)	76.46	76.46	76.46
Fair Value	$6.90	$7.24	$7.60
Upside / Downside	-89.04%	-88.50%	-87.94%

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M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (MDC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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