DDM Analysis: MBCN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$74.28 - $388.38	$149.29
Multi-Stage	$42.01 - $45.91	$43.92
Blended Fair Value	$96.61
Current Price	$30.01
Upside	221.92%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.87%	11.78%	0.80	0.85	0.68	0.52	0.47	0.45	0.47	0.41	0.29	0.27
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.93%	25.03%	29.48%	10.59%	4.04%	-2.49%	12.54%	44.87%	7.66%	1.51%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.85%	3.59%	2.42%	2.11%	2.26%	2.87%	2.30%	1.69%	1.27%	1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	15.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9.13

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.17	1.98	1.19
Cash Retained (M)	9.13	9.13	9.13
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.17	-1.98	-1.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5.96	7.15	7.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8.11	8.11	8.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.74	0.88	0.98
LTM Dividend per Share	0.83	0.83	0.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.74	0.88	0.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.56	1.71	1.81
WACC / Discount Rate	7.72%	7.72%	7.72%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$74.28	$149.29	$388.38
Upside / Downside	147.52%	397.48%	1,194.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	15.84	16.86	17.96	19.13	20.37	21.70	22.35
Payout Ratio	42.36%	51.89%	61.42%	70.94%	80.47%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6.71	8.75	11.03	13.57	16.39	19.53	20.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.72%	7.72%	7.72%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	8.05	8.12	8.20
Year 2 PV (M)	9.33	9.51	9.69
Year 3 PV (M)	10.55	10.86	11.17
Year 4 PV (M)	11.72	12.18	12.64
Year 5 PV (M)	12.84	13.46	14.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)	288.10	302.02	316.47
Equity Value (M)	340.60	356.15	372.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	8.11	8.11	8.11
Fair Value	$42.01	$43.92	$45.91
Upside / Downside	39.97%	46.36%	52.99%

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Middlefield Banc Corp. (MBCN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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