DDM Analysis: LSTR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$52.41 - $91.76	$69.18
Multi-Stage	$66.84 - $72.98	$69.85
Blended Fair Value	$69.52
Current Price	$122.10
Upside	-43.06%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	33.99%	15.87%	3.44	3.35	3.31	3.20	3.13	0.80	2.54	0.46	0.41	1.65
YoY Growth	-	-	2.86%	1.26%	3.31%	2.24%	292.61%	-68.63%	457.90%	11.21%	-75.24%	109.67%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.34%	1.74%	1.84%	2.08%	1.85%	0.86%	2.32%	0.42%	0.48%	2.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	137.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	123.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)	13.44

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	27.45	17.16	10.29
Cash Retained (M)	13.44	13.44	13.44
(-) Cash Required (M)	-27.45	-17.16	-10.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-14.01	-3.72	3.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	35.00	35.00	35.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.40	-0.11	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	3.54	3.54	3.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.40	-0.11	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.14	3.43	3.63
WACC / Discount Rate	8.38%	8.38%	8.38%
Growth Rate	2.26%	3.26%	4.26%
Fair Value	$52.41	$69.18	$91.76
Upside / Downside	-57.08%	-43.34%	-24.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	137.26	141.73	146.34	151.11	156.03	161.11	165.94
Payout Ratio	90.21%	90.17%	90.12%	90.08%	90.04%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	123.82	127.79	131.89	136.12	140.49	145.00	153.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.38%	8.38%	8.38%
Growth Rate	2.26%	3.26%	4.26%
Year 1 PV (M)	116.77	117.91	119.05
Year 2 PV (M)	110.12	112.29	114.47
Year 3 PV (M)	103.85	106.93	110.07
Year 4 PV (M)	97.94	101.83	105.83
Year 5 PV (M)	92.37	96.97	101.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,817.91	1,908.56	2,002.78
Equity Value (M)	2,338.96	2,444.48	2,553.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	35.00	35.00	35.00
Fair Value	$66.84	$69.85	$72.98
Upside / Downside	-45.26%	-42.79%	-40.23%

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Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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