Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Lam Soon (Thailand) Public Company Limited (LST.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.49 - $20.35$14.41
Multi-Stage$16.81 - $18.47$17.62
Blended Fair Value$16.02
Current Price$4.66
Upside243.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.94%0.77%0.290.250.310.250.400.260.190.120.160.22
YoY Growth--17.37%-21.29%27.13%-39.49%54.87%35.07%63.61%-27.84%-25.04%-17.93%
Dividend Yield--6.07%4.96%6.33%3.95%8.10%6.00%4.28%2.19%2.85%5.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)539.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)196.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)342.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.8467.4040.44
Cash Retained (M)342.33342.33342.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.84-67.40-40.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)234.49274.93301.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)816.24816.24816.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate1.21%2.21%3.21%
Fair Value$10.49$14.41$20.35
Upside / Downside125.09%209.27%336.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)539.21551.12563.30575.74588.46601.46619.50
Payout Ratio36.51%47.21%57.91%68.60%79.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)196.88260.18326.19394.98466.66541.31573.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate1.21%2.21%3.21%
Year 1 PV (M)242.35244.74247.14
Year 2 PV (M)283.01288.63294.30
Year 3 PV (M)319.20328.76338.50
Year 4 PV (M)351.28365.37379.88
Year 5 PV (M)379.54398.67418.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,145.1312,757.1113,393.51
Equity Value (M)13,720.5114,383.2715,071.89
Shares Outstanding (M)816.24816.24816.24
Fair Value$16.81$17.62$18.47
Upside / Downside260.72%278.14%296.25%

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