DDM Analysis: LPX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$32.46 - $51.51	$41.14
Multi-Stage	$37.16 - $40.63	$38.86
Blended Fair Value	$40.00
Current Price	$88.84
Upside	-54.98%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.63%	0.00%	1.06	0.99	0.99	0.94	0.93	0.93	1.06	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	7.25%	0.00%	4.55%	1.54%	0.00%	-12.63%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.15%	1.18%	1.82%	1.52%	1.67%	5.40%	4.35%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	216.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	76.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	140.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	43.20	27.00	16.20
Cash Retained (M)	140.00	140.00	140.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-43.20	-27.00	-16.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)	96.80	113.00	123.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	70.00	70.00	70.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.38	1.61	1.77
LTM Dividend per Share	1.09	1.09	1.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.38	1.61	1.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.47	2.70	2.85
WACC / Discount Rate	10.06%	10.06%	10.06%
Growth Rate	2.28%	3.28%	4.28%
Fair Value	$32.46	$41.14	$51.51
Upside / Downside	-63.47%	-53.70%	-42.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	216.00	223.08	230.39	237.93	245.73	253.78	261.39
Payout Ratio	35.19%	46.15%	57.11%	68.07%	79.04%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	76.00	102.95	131.58	161.97	194.22	228.40	241.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.06%	10.06%	10.06%
Growth Rate	2.28%	3.28%	4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)	92.63	93.54	94.45
Year 2 PV (M)	106.54	108.63	110.75
Year 3 PV (M)	118.01	121.51	125.07
Year 4 PV (M)	127.33	132.39	137.59
Year 5 PV (M)	134.75	141.47	148.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,021.91	2,122.71	2,227.48
Equity Value (M)	2,601.18	2,720.24	2,843.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	70.00	70.00	70.00
Fair Value	$37.16	$38.86	$40.63
Upside / Downside	-58.17%	-56.26%	-54.27%

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601236.SS	Hongta Securities Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$0.20	95.69%
9550.SR	Sure Global Tech Company	2.42%	$1.52	28.67%
9562.SR	Foods Gate Trading Co.	2.42%	$0.67	13.40%
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NMAN.ST	Nederman Holding AB (publ)	2.42%	$4.00	47.45%
SALIK.AE	Salik Company P.J.S.C.	2.42%	$0.16	83.74%
SKMO.ST	Skåne-möllan AB (publ)	2.42%	$1.40	96.86%
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0U96.L	Everest Re Group, Ltd.	2.41%	$8.07	61.23%
3591.T	Wacoal Holdings Corp.	2.41%	$106.27	49.77%
601966.SS	Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.,Ltd.	2.41%	$0.35	42.43%
7951.T	Yamaha Corporation	2.41%	$26.35	66.95%
BORG.ST	Björn Borg AB (publ)	2.41%	$1.50	43.49%
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Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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