DDM Analysis: LLY

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$768.38 - $4,065.90	$1,529.46
Multi-Stage	$431.63 - $472.04	$451.47
Blended Fair Value	$990.46
Current Price	$763.00
Upside	29.81%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	14.20%	8.34%	5.20	4.52	3.93	3.43	2.98	2.68	2.57	2.43	2.40	2.36
YoY Growth	-	-	15.02%	15.09%	14.55%	14.87%	11.51%	4.24%	5.46%	1.56%	1.47%	1.24%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.63%	0.59%	1.14%	1.20%	1.60%	1.93%	1.99%	3.15%	2.85%	3.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	18,412.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,206.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	13,205.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,682.42	2,301.51	1,380.91
Cash Retained (M)	13,205.30	13,205.30	13,205.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,682.42	-2,301.51	-1,380.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)	9,522.88	10,903.79	11,824.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	900.59	900.59	900.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share	10.57	12.11	13.13
LTM Dividend per Share	5.78	5.78	5.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share	10.57	12.11	13.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	16.36	17.89	18.91
WACC / Discount Rate	7.75%	7.75%	7.75%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$768.38	$1,529.46	$4,065.90
Upside / Downside	0.71%	100.45%	432.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	18,412.10	19,608.89	20,883.46	22,240.89	23,686.55	25,226.17	25,982.96
Payout Ratio	28.28%	40.62%	52.97%	65.31%	77.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,206.80	7,965.79	11,061.46	14,525.90	18,393.99	22,703.56	24,034.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.75%	7.75%	7.75%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	7,323.73	7,393.15	7,462.57
Year 2 PV (M)	9,350.15	9,528.24	9,708.02
Year 3 PV (M)	11,288.92	11,612.98	11,943.19
Year 4 PV (M)	13,142.81	13,648.25	14,168.12
Year 5 PV (M)	14,914.52	15,634.90	16,382.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)	332,697.96	348,767.40	365,451.85
Equity Value (M)	388,718.09	406,584.92	425,116.60
Shares Outstanding (M)	900.59	900.59	900.59
Fair Value	$431.63	$451.47	$472.04
Upside / Downside	-43.43%	-40.83%	-38.13%

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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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