DDM Analysis: LKQ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$27.44 - $43.30	$34.69
Multi-Stage	$38.41 - $42.07	$40.21
Blended Fair Value	$37.45
Current Price	$30.54
Upside	22.62%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	1.23	1.17	1.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	5.30%	6.34%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.89%	2.19%	1.93%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	697.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	312.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	385.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	139.40	87.13	52.28
Cash Retained (M)	385.00	385.00	385.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-139.40	-87.13	-52.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)	245.60	297.88	332.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	258.93	258.93	258.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.95	1.15	1.29
LTM Dividend per Share	1.20	1.20	1.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.95	1.15	1.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.15	2.36	2.49
WACC / Discount Rate	8.71%	8.71%	8.71%
Growth Rate	0.80%	1.80%	2.80%
Fair Value	$27.44	$34.69	$43.30
Upside / Downside	-10.16%	13.59%	41.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	697.00	709.52	722.26	735.23	748.44	761.88	784.74
Payout Ratio	44.76%	53.81%	62.86%	71.91%	80.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	312.00	381.80	454.00	528.67	605.88	685.69	725.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.71%	8.71%	8.71%
Growth Rate	0.80%	1.80%	2.80%
Year 1 PV (M)	347.76	351.21	354.66
Year 2 PV (M)	376.67	384.18	391.77
Year 3 PV (M)	399.53	411.54	423.78
Year 4 PV (M)	417.06	433.86	451.16
Year 5 PV (M)	429.93	451.68	474.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,974.23	8,377.72	8,797.38
Equity Value (M)	9,945.18	10,410.19	10,893.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	258.93	258.93	258.93
Fair Value	$38.41	$40.21	$42.07
Upside / Downside	25.77%	31.65%	37.75%

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LKQ Corporation (LKQ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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