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Definitive Analysis

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Koninklijke KPN N.V. (KPN.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.94 - $6.26$5.00
Multi-Stage$8.14 - $8.95$8.54
Blended Fair Value$6.77
Current Price$4.14
Upside63.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.76%21.26%0.150.140.130.130.120.120.120.120.100.11
YoY Growth--10.05%2.80%3.07%4.73%3.32%-3.21%3.93%20.62%-14.75%426.60%
Dividend Yield--4.23%4.34%4.56%4.68%4.90%4.49%4.77%4.03%3.46%3.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,674.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,160.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)514.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)334.80209.25125.55
Cash Retained (M)514.00514.00514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-334.80-209.25-125.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)179.20304.75388.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,335.084,335.084,335.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Fair Value$3.94$5.00$6.26
Upside / Downside-4.82%20.73%51.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,674.001,672.461,670.911,669.371,667.841,666.301,716.29
Payout Ratio69.30%73.44%77.58%81.72%85.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,160.001,228.191,296.251,364.181,431.991,499.671,587.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Year 1 PV (M)1,139.951,151.481,163.00
Year 2 PV (M)1,116.691,139.391,162.31
Year 3 PV (M)1,090.791,124.211,158.30
Year 4 PV (M)1,062.751,106.381,151.35
Year 5 PV (M)1,033.021,086.311,141.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,865.4231,406.0233,009.55
Equity Value (M)35,308.6337,013.7938,786.30
Shares Outstanding (M)4,335.084,335.084,335.08
Fair Value$8.14$8.54$8.95
Upside / Downside96.74%106.24%116.11%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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