DDM Analysis: KOG.OL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$192.14 - $523.51	$296.21
Multi-Stage	$133.25 - $145.45	$139.24
Blended Fair Value	$217.72
Current Price	$390.85
Upside	-44.30%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	40.62%	14.64%	2.80	0.73	3.09	1.62	2.56	0.51	0.51	0.51	0.58	1.26
YoY Growth	-	-	286.05%	-76.50%	90.53%	-36.61%	401.79%	0.00%	0.00%	-11.98%	-54.02%	76.27%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.91%	0.49%	3.65%	2.31%	6.52%	1.95%	1.92%	1.52%	2.50%	5.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,052.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,990.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,062.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,410.40	881.50	528.90
Cash Retained (M)	4,062.00	4,062.00	4,062.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,410.40	-881.50	-528.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,651.60	3,180.50	3,533.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	879.09	879.09	879.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.02	3.62	4.02
LTM Dividend per Share	3.40	3.40	3.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.02	3.62	4.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.42	7.02	7.42
WACC / Discount Rate	9.02%	9.02%	9.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$192.14	$296.21	$523.51
Upside / Downside	-50.84%	-24.21%	33.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,052.00	7,510.38	7,998.55	8,518.46	9,072.16	9,661.85	9,951.71
Payout Ratio	42.40%	51.92%	61.44%	70.96%	80.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,990.00	3,899.35	4,914.28	6,044.68	7,301.26	8,695.67	9,205.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.02%	9.02%	9.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,543.02	3,576.61	3,610.19
Year 2 PV (M)	4,057.17	4,134.45	4,212.46
Year 3 PV (M)	4,534.39	4,664.55	4,797.19
Year 4 PV (M)	4,976.52	5,167.90	5,364.75
Year 5 PV (M)	5,385.33	5,645.44	5,915.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	94,642.17	99,213.42	103,959.63
Equity Value (M)	117,138.60	122,402.38	127,859.73
Shares Outstanding (M)	879.09	879.09	879.09
Fair Value	$133.25	$139.24	$145.45
Upside / Downside	-65.91%	-64.38%	-62.79%

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Financial Statements

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Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG.OL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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