DDM Analysis: KMT

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.93 - $12.94	$10.88
Multi-Stage	$14.04 - $15.36	$14.68
Blended Fair Value	$12.78
Current Price	$20.93
Upside	-38.94%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-1.38%	0.82%	0.80	0.82	0.83	0.86	0.86	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82
YoY Growth	-	-	-2.49%	-1.69%	-3.07%	-0.25%	0.65%	0.85%	0.99%	1.52%	0.65%	11.83%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.82%	3.16%	3.35%	4.18%	2.52%	2.96%	2.76%	1.94%	2.05%	2.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	94.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	61.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)	32.89

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	18.86	11.79	7.07
Cash Retained (M)	32.89	32.89	32.89
(-) Cash Required (M)	-18.86	-11.79	-7.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)	14.03	21.11	25.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	77.45	77.45	77.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.27	0.33
LTM Dividend per Share	0.79	0.79	0.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.27	0.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.97	1.07	1.13
WACC / Discount Rate	9.60%	9.60%	9.60%
Growth Rate	-1.18%	-0.18%	0.82%
Fair Value	$8.93	$10.88	$12.94
Upside / Downside	-57.33%	-48.03%	-38.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	94.30	94.13	93.97	93.80	93.64	93.47	96.28
Payout Ratio	65.12%	70.09%	75.07%	80.05%	85.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	61.41	65.98	70.54	75.09	79.61	84.13	89.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.60%	9.60%	9.60%
Growth Rate	-1.18%	-0.18%	0.82%
Year 1 PV (M)	59.60	60.20	60.80
Year 2 PV (M)	57.55	58.72	59.91
Year 3 PV (M)	55.33	57.03	58.76
Year 4 PV (M)	52.99	55.17	57.42
Year 5 PV (M)	50.58	53.19	55.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)	810.99	852.87	896.45
Equity Value (M)	1,087.05	1,137.18	1,189.24
Shares Outstanding (M)	77.45	77.45	77.45
Fair Value	$14.04	$14.68	$15.36
Upside / Downside	-32.94%	-29.85%	-26.63%

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Kennametal Inc. (KMT)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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