DDM Analysis: KINO.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$563.13 - $781.36	$672.56
Multi-Stage	$1,170.70 - $1,287.41	$1,227.90
Blended Fair Value	$950.23
Current Price	$1,195.00
Upside	-20.48%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-17.38%	-3.07%	22.73	0.73	10.00	24.87	106.72	59.06	27.97	25.90	38.34	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	2,996.34%	-92.66%	-59.78%	-76.70%	80.70%	111.11%	8.00%	-32.43%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.05%	0.05%	0.66%	0.73%	5.16%	2.94%	1.10%	1.31%	1.53%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	137,117.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	77,453.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	59,664.06

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	27,423.53	17,139.71	10,283.82
Cash Retained (M)	59,664.06	59,664.06	59,664.06
(-) Cash Required (M)	-27,423.53	-17,139.71	-10,283.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)	32,240.53	42,524.35	49,380.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,378.82	1,378.82	1,378.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share	23.38	30.84	35.81
LTM Dividend per Share	56.17	56.17	56.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	23.38	30.84	35.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend	79.56	87.02	91.99
WACC / Discount Rate	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%
Growth Rate	-5.07%	-4.07%	-3.07%
Fair Value	$563.13	$672.56	$781.36
Upside / Downside	-52.88%	-43.72%	-34.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	137,117.67	131,538.15	126,185.68	121,051.01	116,125.28	111,399.97	114,741.97
Payout Ratio	56.49%	63.19%	69.89%	76.59%	83.30%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	77,453.60	83,118.39	88,193.92	92,718.76	96,729.33	100,259.98	106,136.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%
Growth Rate	-5.07%	-4.07%	-3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)	75,918.63	76,718.36	77,518.08
Year 2 PV (M)	73,576.84	75,135.12	76,709.72
Year 3 PV (M)	70,651.49	72,907.82	75,211.68
Year 4 PV (M)	67,322.94	70,204.80	73,178.20
Year 5 PV (M)	63,735.85	67,164.28	70,738.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,262,979.07	1,330,916.37	1,401,746.26
Equity Value (M)	1,614,184.82	1,693,046.74	1,775,102.63
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,378.82	1,378.82	1,378.82
Fair Value	$1,170.70	$1,227.90	$1,287.41
Upside / Downside	-2.03%	2.75%	7.73%

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PT Kino Indonesia Tbk (KINO.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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