DDM Analysis: KGI.BK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.72 - $7.34	$5.93
Multi-Stage	$9.67 - $10.62	$10.13
Blended Fair Value	$8.03
Current Price	$3.96
Upside	102.82%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-4.24%	-1.48%	0.31	0.36	0.55	0.25	0.34	0.39	0.32	0.38	0.29	0.37
YoY Growth	-	-	-12.68%	-35.45%	120.00%	-26.69%	-11.43%	20.31%	-15.79%	33.33%	-21.92%	1.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.26%	7.41%	10.92%	3.74%	7.37%	10.55%	6.57%	8.04%	6.80%	10.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	983.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	617.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)	365.81

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	196.65	122.90	73.74
Cash Retained (M)	365.81	365.81	365.81
(-) Cash Required (M)	-196.65	-122.90	-73.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)	169.16	242.90	292.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,986.75	1,986.75	1,986.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.12	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.31	0.31	0.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.12	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.40	0.43	0.46
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	-1.40%	-0.40%	0.60%
Fair Value	$4.72	$5.93	$7.34
Upside / Downside	19.14%	49.72%	85.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	983.23	979.29	975.37	971.45	967.56	963.68	992.59
Payout Ratio	62.80%	68.24%	73.68%	79.12%	84.56%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	617.43	668.23	718.62	768.60	818.16	867.31	918.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	-1.40%	-0.40%	0.60%
Year 1 PV (M)	618.98	625.26	631.54
Year 2 PV (M)	616.59	629.16	641.86
Year 3 PV (M)	610.86	629.64	648.79
Year 4 PV (M)	602.33	627.14	652.70
Year 5 PV (M)	591.45	622.06	653.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	16,164.87	17,001.39	17,872.20
Equity Value (M)	19,205.08	20,134.64	21,101.01
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,986.75	1,986.75	1,986.75
Fair Value	$9.67	$10.13	$10.62
Upside / Downside	144.11%	155.92%	168.20%

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KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (KGI.BK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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