DDM Analysis: KALU

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$90.84 - $175.08	$124.50
Multi-Stage	$76.81 - $83.60	$80.14
Blended Fair Value	$102.32
Current Price	$77.16
Upside	32.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.17%	7.16%	3.08	3.06	3.05	2.84	2.64	2.40	2.29	2.13	1.97	1.71
YoY Growth	-	-	0.60%	0.60%	7.28%	7.60%	10.15%	4.51%	7.71%	8.02%	15.30%	10.63%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.09%	3.46%	4.08%	3.02%	2.39%	3.46%	2.17%	2.11%	2.47%	2.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	91.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	64.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	27.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	18.28	11.43	6.86
Cash Retained (M)	27.30	27.30	27.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-18.28	-11.43	-6.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)	9.02	15.88	20.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	16.45	16.45	16.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.55	0.97	1.24
LTM Dividend per Share	3.90	3.90	3.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.55	0.97	1.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.45	4.86	5.14
WACC / Discount Rate	10.30%	10.30%	10.30%
Growth Rate	5.16%	6.16%	7.16%
Fair Value	$90.84	$124.50	$175.08
Upside / Downside	17.73%	61.35%	126.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	91.40	97.03	103.00	109.34	116.07	123.22	126.91
Payout Ratio	70.13%	74.11%	78.08%	82.05%	86.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	64.10	71.90	80.42	89.72	99.85	110.90	117.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.30%	10.30%	10.30%
Growth Rate	5.16%	6.16%	7.16%
Year 1 PV (M)	64.57	65.19	65.80
Year 2 PV (M)	64.86	66.10	67.35
Year 3 PV (M)	64.98	66.85	68.76
Year 4 PV (M)	64.95	67.46	70.03
Year 5 PV (M)	64.78	67.92	71.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	939.08	984.58	1,031.84
Equity Value (M)	1,263.22	1,318.10	1,374.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	16.45	16.45	16.45
Fair Value	$76.81	$80.14	$83.60
Upside / Downside	-0.46%	3.87%	8.35%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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