DDM Analysis: JNJ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$123.76 - $208.30	$160.78
Multi-Stage	$236.13 - $259.50	$247.59
Blended Fair Value	$204.18
Current Price	$181.62
Upside	12.42%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.58%	4.29%	4.88	4.85	4.82	4.55	4.32	4.09	3.92	3.69	3.56	3.37
YoY Growth	-	-	0.45%	0.75%	5.89%	5.26%	5.69%	4.46%	6.16%	3.74%	5.48%	5.21%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.94%	3.08%	3.07%	2.58%	2.64%	3.08%	2.82%	2.96%	2.85%	3.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	25,119.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12,234.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	12,885.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5,023.80	3,139.88	1,883.93
Cash Retained (M)	12,885.00	12,885.00	12,885.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5,023.80	-3,139.88	-1,883.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)	7,861.20	9,745.13	11,001.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,424.65	2,424.65	2,424.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.24	4.02	4.54
LTM Dividend per Share	5.05	5.05	5.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.24	4.02	4.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend	8.29	9.06	9.58
WACC / Discount Rate	6.48%	6.48%	6.48%
Growth Rate	-0.20%	0.80%	1.80%
Fair Value	$123.76	$160.78	$208.30
Upside / Downside	-31.86%	-11.48%	14.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	25,119.00	25,319.17	25,520.94	25,724.32	25,929.32	26,135.95	26,920.03
Payout Ratio	48.70%	56.96%	65.22%	73.48%	81.74%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12,234.00	14,422.65	16,645.40	18,902.66	21,194.84	23,522.36	24,901.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.48%	6.48%	6.48%
Growth Rate	-0.20%	0.80%	1.80%
Year 1 PV (M)	13,410.56	13,544.94	13,679.32
Year 2 PV (M)	14,391.23	14,681.09	14,973.84
Year 3 PV (M)	15,195.98	15,657.38	16,128.03
Year 4 PV (M)	15,843.02	16,487.64	17,151.73
Year 5 PV (M)	16,348.97	17,184.67	18,054.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)	497,337.39	522,759.26	549,210.23
Equity Value (M)	572,527.16	600,314.97	629,197.33
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,424.65	2,424.65	2,424.65
Fair Value	$236.13	$247.59	$259.50
Upside / Downside	30.01%	36.32%	42.88%

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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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