DDM Analysis: JMSB

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.80 - $13.24	$10.90
Multi-Stage	$15.46 - $17.00	$16.21
Blended Fair Value	$13.56
Current Price	$19.33
Upside	-29.87%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.25	0.22	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	14.48%	11.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.51%	1.26%	0.91%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	14.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)	10.42

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.94	1.84	1.10
Cash Retained (M)	10.42	10.42	10.42
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.94	-1.84	-1.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)	7.48	8.58	9.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	14.23	14.23	14.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.53	0.60	0.65
LTM Dividend per Share	0.30	0.30	0.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.53	0.60	0.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.83	0.90	0.96
WACC / Discount Rate	7.85%	7.85%	7.85%
Growth Rate	-1.40%	-0.40%	0.60%
Fair Value	$8.80	$10.90	$13.24
Upside / Downside	-54.48%	-43.61%	-31.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	14.69	14.63	14.57	14.51	14.46	14.40	14.83
Payout Ratio	29.07%	41.25%	53.44%	65.63%	77.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4.27	6.04	7.79	9.53	11.25	12.96	13.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.85%	7.85%	7.85%
Growth Rate	-1.40%	-0.40%	0.60%
Year 1 PV (M)	5.54	5.60	5.65
Year 2 PV (M)	6.56	6.69	6.83
Year 3 PV (M)	7.37	7.59	7.82
Year 4 PV (M)	7.98	8.31	8.65
Year 5 PV (M)	8.44	8.88	9.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)	184.08	193.60	203.52
Equity Value (M)	219.97	230.68	241.81
Shares Outstanding (M)	14.23	14.23	14.23
Fair Value	$15.46	$16.21	$17.00
Upside / Downside	-20.02%	-16.13%	-12.08%

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John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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