Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

JD Food Public Company Limited (JDF.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.44 - $2.23$1.80
Multi-Stage$3.36 - $3.70$3.53
Blended Fair Value$2.66
Current Price$1.63
Upside63.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-29.22%0.00%0.040.020.000.480.070.230.120.110.000.00
YoY Growth--100.02%0.00%-100.00%578.47%-68.52%95.60%4.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.04%0.79%0.00%18.48%2.72%8.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.2711.426.85
Cash Retained (M)43.3543.3543.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.27-11.42-6.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.0831.9336.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)600.00600.00600.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.44$1.80$2.23
Upside / Downside-11.89%10.67%36.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.3490.4289.5288.6287.7486.8689.47
Payout Ratio52.54%60.03%67.52%75.02%82.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.9954.2860.4566.4872.3978.1782.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)50.5551.0651.58
Year 2 PV (M)52.4153.4954.57
Year 3 PV (M)53.6755.3357.03
Year 4 PV (M)54.4256.6859.00
Year 5 PV (M)54.7257.5760.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,750.181,841.321,936.21
Equity Value (M)2,015.952,115.442,218.92
Shares Outstanding (M)600.00600.00600.00
Fair Value$3.36$3.53$3.70
Upside / Downside106.13%116.30%126.88%

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