DDM Analysis: ITW

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$159.37 - $300.60	$216.63
Multi-Stage	$174.13 - $190.33	$182.08
Blended Fair Value	$199.36
Current Price	$260.76
Upside	-23.55%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.11%	9.08%	5.77	5.50	5.25	4.98	4.69	4.50	3.83	3.20	2.80	2.53
YoY Growth	-	-	4.95%	4.73%	5.40%	6.09%	4.39%	17.53%	19.45%	14.62%	10.65%	4.36%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.33%	2.07%	2.16%	2.38%	2.12%	3.16%	2.58%	2.04%	2.11%	2.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,026.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,761.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,265.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	605.20	378.25	226.95
Cash Retained (M)	1,265.00	1,265.00	1,265.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-605.20	-378.25	-226.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	659.80	886.75	1,038.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	293.73	293.73	293.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.25	3.02	3.53
LTM Dividend per Share	6.00	6.00	6.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.25	3.02	3.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend	8.24	9.01	9.53
WACC / Discount Rate	8.44%	8.44%	8.44%
Growth Rate	3.11%	4.11%	5.11%
Fair Value	$159.37	$216.63	$300.60
Upside / Downside	-38.88%	-16.92%	15.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,026.00	3,150.44	3,279.99	3,414.87	3,555.30	3,701.50	3,812.55
Payout Ratio	58.20%	64.56%	70.92%	77.28%	83.64%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,761.00	2,033.81	2,326.08	2,638.95	2,973.62	3,331.35	3,526.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.44%	8.44%	8.44%
Growth Rate	3.11%	4.11%	5.11%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,857.43	1,875.44	1,893.45
Year 2 PV (M)	1,940.11	1,977.93	2,016.11
Year 3 PV (M)	2,010.18	2,069.23	2,129.43
Year 4 PV (M)	2,068.66	2,150.08	2,233.89
Year 5 PV (M)	2,116.53	2,221.18	2,329.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	41,153.08	43,187.71	45,302.03
Equity Value (M)	51,145.99	53,481.57	55,904.83
Shares Outstanding (M)	293.73	293.73	293.73
Fair Value	$174.13	$182.08	$190.33
Upside / Downside	-33.22%	-30.17%	-27.01%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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