Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ISA Energía Brasil S.A. (ISAE4.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.76 - $64.82$52.43
Multi-Stage$96.72 - $106.49$101.51
Blended Fair Value$76.97
Current Price$24.67
Upside211.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%1.880.910.154.031.130.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--107.29%511.67%-96.32%255.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.42%3.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,924.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,335.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,588.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)584.99365.62219.37
Cash Retained (M)1,588.951,588.951,588.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-584.99-365.62-219.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,003.961,223.331,369.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)658.93658.93658.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.521.862.08
LTM Dividend per Share2.032.032.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.521.862.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.553.884.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$41.76$52.43$64.82
Upside / Downside69.26%112.51%162.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,924.932,895.682,866.722,838.052,809.672,781.582,865.02
Payout Ratio45.68%54.54%63.41%72.27%81.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,335.981,579.321,817.662,051.072,279.632,503.422,650.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,470.231,485.241,500.24
Year 2 PV (M)1,575.241,607.551,640.19
Year 3 PV (M)1,654.751,705.921,758.14
Year 4 PV (M)1,712.111,783.071,856.22
Year 5 PV (M)1,750.321,841.471,936.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,569.1258,462.7361,475.65
Equity Value (M)63,731.7866,885.9870,166.80
Shares Outstanding (M)658.93658.93658.93
Fair Value$96.72$101.51$106.49
Upside / Downside292.06%311.46%331.64%

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