Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.78 - $71.11$40.96
Multi-Stage$19.26 - $21.02$20.12
Blended Fair Value$30.54
Current Price$17.46
Upside74.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.590.590.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.15%2.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)63.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.1715.739.44
Cash Retained (M)63.3563.3563.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.17-15.73-9.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.1847.6253.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)110.18110.18110.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.430.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.430.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.06
WACC / Discount Rate8.95%8.95%8.95%
Growth Rate5.35%6.35%7.35%
Fair Value$26.78$40.96$71.11
Upside / Downside53.37%134.59%307.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.85133.84142.35151.39161.01171.24176.38
Payout Ratio49.66%57.73%65.80%73.87%81.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62.5077.2793.66111.83131.92154.12163.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.95%8.95%8.95%
Growth Rate5.35%6.35%7.35%
Year 1 PV (M)70.2670.9271.59
Year 2 PV (M)77.4378.9180.40
Year 3 PV (M)84.0686.4788.93
Year 4 PV (M)90.1693.6397.20
Year 5 PV (M)95.77100.40105.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,704.161,786.581,872.17
Equity Value (M)2,121.832,216.922,315.51
Shares Outstanding (M)110.18110.18110.18
Fair Value$19.26$20.12$21.02
Upside / Downside10.30%15.24%20.37%

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