DDM Analysis: ILU.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.79 - $9.59	$8.18
Multi-Stage	$11.23 - $12.36	$11.78
Blended Fair Value	$9.98
Current Price	$3.80
Upside	162.66%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-19.58%	-2.16%	0.08	0.22	0.34	0.13	0.08	0.23	0.25	0.06	0.21	0.18
YoY Growth	-	-	-65.36%	-33.92%	164.98%	69.94%	-67.37%	-7.76%	331.47%	-72.75%	15.85%	90.19%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.54%	3.40%	3.56%	1.27%	1.16%	4.96%	6.57%	1.14%	5.85%	5.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	462.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	63.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	399.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	92.42	57.76	34.66
Cash Retained (M)	399.00	399.00	399.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-92.42	-57.76	-34.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)	306.58	341.24	364.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	432.76	432.76	432.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.71	0.79	0.84
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.71	0.79	0.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.85	0.93	0.99
WACC / Discount Rate	9.18%	9.18%	9.18%
Growth Rate	-3.02%	-2.02%	-1.02%
Fair Value	$6.79	$8.18	$9.59
Upside / Downside	78.79%	115.22%	152.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	462.10	452.78	443.64	434.69	425.92	417.33	429.85
Payout Ratio	13.66%	28.92%	44.19%	59.46%	74.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	63.10	130.96	196.06	258.48	318.30	375.60	397.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.18%	9.18%	9.18%
Growth Rate	-3.02%	-2.02%	-1.02%
Year 1 PV (M)	118.73	119.95	121.18
Year 2 PV (M)	161.15	164.49	167.86
Year 3 PV (M)	192.61	198.63	204.77
Year 4 PV (M)	215.03	224.03	233.32
Year 5 PV (M)	230.04	242.15	254.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,942.77	4,150.28	4,366.43
Equity Value (M)	4,860.32	5,099.53	5,348.32
Shares Outstanding (M)	432.76	432.76	432.76
Fair Value	$11.23	$11.78	$12.36
Upside / Downside	195.55%	210.10%	225.23%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Iluka Resources Limited (ILU.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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