DDM Analysis: IBM

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$79.90 - $124.04	$100.32
Multi-Stage	$138.61 - $151.84	$145.10
Blended Fair Value	$122.71
Current Price	$282.16
Upside	-56.51%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.50%	3.72%	6.50	6.39	6.29	6.21	6.13	6.03	5.99	5.82	5.56	5.18
YoY Growth	-	-	1.77%	1.55%	1.35%	1.24%	1.58%	0.72%	2.91%	4.76%	7.33%	14.82%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.61%	3.36%	4.80%	4.77%	4.81%	5.69%	4.38%	3.97%	3.34%	3.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,907.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6,227.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,680.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,581.40	988.38	593.03
Cash Retained (M)	1,680.00	1,680.00	1,680.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,581.40	-988.38	-593.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	98.60	691.63	1,086.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	945.85	945.85	945.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.73	1.15
LTM Dividend per Share	6.58	6.58	6.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.73	1.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.69	7.31	7.73
WACC / Discount Rate	7.82%	7.82%	7.82%
Growth Rate	-0.50%	0.50%	1.50%
Fair Value	$79.90	$100.32	$124.04
Upside / Downside	-71.68%	-64.45%	-56.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,907.00	7,946.26	7,985.71	8,025.36	8,065.21	8,105.25	8,348.41
Payout Ratio	78.75%	81.00%	83.25%	85.50%	87.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6,227.00	6,436.66	6,648.25	6,861.78	7,077.27	7,294.73	7,722.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.82%	7.82%	7.82%
Growth Rate	-0.50%	0.50%	1.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,910.20	5,969.60	6,029.00
Year 2 PV (M)	5,605.19	5,718.42	5,832.79
Year 3 PV (M)	5,312.04	5,473.82	5,638.85
Year 4 PV (M)	5,030.73	5,236.05	5,447.59
Year 5 PV (M)	4,761.19	5,005.32	5,259.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)	104,482.72	109,839.91	115,414.61
Equity Value (M)	131,102.07	137,243.11	143,622.20
Shares Outstanding (M)	945.85	945.85	945.85
Fair Value	$138.61	$145.10	$151.84
Upside / Downside	-50.88%	-48.58%	-46.18%

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International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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