DDM Analysis: HTLF

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$50.42 - $149.48	$79.68
Multi-Stage	$35.19 - $38.37	$36.75
Blended Fair Value	$58.22
Current Price	$56.70
Upside	2.67%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	25.03%	22.15%	1.38	1.26	1.13	0.74	0.57	0.45	0.34	0.30	0.24	0.19
YoY Growth	-	-	9.04%	11.72%	52.19%	29.66%	27.12%	32.97%	13.11%	26.47%	24.05%	2.52%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.05%	3.29%	2.36%	1.48%	1.90%	1.03%	0.64%	0.60%	0.77%	0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	85.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	59.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)	25.80

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	17.05	10.65	6.39
Cash Retained (M)	25.80	25.80	25.80
(-) Cash Required (M)	-17.05	-10.65	-6.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8.75	15.15	19.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	42.99	42.99	42.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.35	0.45
LTM Dividend per Share	1.38	1.38	1.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.35	0.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.59	1.74	1.83
WACC / Discount Rate	8.82%	8.82%	8.82%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$50.42	$79.68	$149.48
Upside / Downside	-11.07%	40.53%	163.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	85.24	90.78	96.68	102.96	109.66	116.78	120.29
Payout Ratio	69.73%	73.78%	77.84%	81.89%	85.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	59.44	66.98	75.25	84.32	94.25	105.11	111.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.82%	8.82%	8.82%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	60.98	61.55	62.13
Year 2 PV (M)	62.36	63.55	64.75
Year 3 PV (M)	63.61	65.44	67.30
Year 4 PV (M)	64.72	67.21	69.77
Year 5 PV (M)	65.71	68.88	72.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,195.36	1,253.09	1,313.04
Equity Value (M)	1,512.74	1,579.73	1,649.17
Shares Outstanding (M)	42.99	42.99	42.99
Fair Value	$35.19	$36.75	$38.37
Upside / Downside	-37.93%	-35.18%	-32.34%

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Heartland Financial USA, Inc. (HTLF)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener