DDM Analysis: HTBK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.07 - $62.91	$31.02
Multi-Stage	$13.00 - $14.18	$13.58
Blended Fair Value	$22.30
Current Price	$9.93
Upside	124.59%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.99%	18.66%	0.52	0.51	0.51	0.51	0.50	0.37	0.30	0.25	0.22	0.17
YoY Growth	-	-	0.37%	0.78%	0.72%	0.61%	36.77%	23.07%	21.17%	11.82%	26.90%	86.49%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.43%	6.12%	6.13%	4.51%	4.12%	4.80%	2.44%	1.50%	1.57%	1.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	43.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	31.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11.42

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.67	5.42	3.25
Cash Retained (M)	11.42	11.42	11.42
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.67	-5.42	-3.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2.75	6.00	8.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	61.67	61.67	61.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.10	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.52	0.52	0.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.10	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.56	0.61	0.65
WACC / Discount Rate	8.61%	8.61%	8.61%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$19.07	$31.02	$62.91
Upside / Downside	92.00%	212.43%	533.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	43.33	46.15	49.15	52.35	55.75	59.37	61.15
Payout Ratio	73.66%	76.93%	80.19%	83.46%	86.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	31.92	35.50	39.42	43.69	48.35	53.43	56.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.61%	8.61%	8.61%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	32.38	32.69	32.99
Year 2 PV (M)	32.79	33.41	34.04
Year 3 PV (M)	33.15	34.10	35.07
Year 4 PV (M)	33.46	34.75	36.07
Year 5 PV (M)	33.73	35.36	37.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	636.34	667.07	698.98
Equity Value (M)	801.84	837.38	874.21
Shares Outstanding (M)	61.67	61.67	61.67
Fair Value	$13.00	$13.58	$14.18
Upside / Downside	30.94%	36.75%	42.76%

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Heritage Commerce Corp (HTBK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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