Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Henkel AG & Co. KGaA (HEN.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$104.84 - $173.08$135.11
Multi-Stage$208.87 - $229.70$219.09
Blended Fair Value$177.10
Current Price$66.66
Upside165.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.69%3.92%1.841.841.901.901.901.901.841.661.511.35
YoY Growth--0.00%-3.02%-0.38%0.00%0.00%3.37%10.60%10.27%12.23%7.43%
Dividend Yield--2.17%2.51%2.92%2.68%2.06%2.06%1.92%1.53%1.33%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,871.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,621.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,250.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)774.20483.88290.33
Cash Retained (M)2,250.002,250.002,250.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-774.20-483.88-290.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,475.801,766.131,959.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)419.27419.27419.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.524.214.67
LTM Dividend per Share3.873.873.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.524.214.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.398.088.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-0.58%0.42%1.42%
Fair Value$104.84$135.11$173.08
Upside / Downside57.27%102.69%159.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,871.003,887.363,903.793,920.283,936.853,953.494,072.09
Payout Ratio41.88%51.50%61.13%70.75%80.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,621.002,002.002,386.202,773.613,164.253,558.143,766.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-0.58%0.42%1.42%
Year 1 PV (M)1,862.371,881.101,899.84
Year 2 PV (M)2,064.952,106.702,148.87
Year 3 PV (M)2,232.802,300.852,370.27
Year 4 PV (M)2,369.612,466.392,566.11
Year 5 PV (M)2,478.742,605.922,738.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)76,566.6680,495.4784,583.93
Equity Value (M)87,575.1391,856.4496,307.29
Shares Outstanding (M)419.27419.27419.27
Fair Value$208.87$219.09$229.70
Upside / Downside213.34%228.66%244.59%

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