Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

HeidelbergCement AG (HEID.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$318.63 - $1,370.90$552.41
Multi-Stage$299.17 - $328.08$313.36
Blended Fair Value$432.88
Current Price$199.45
Upside117.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.56%17.12%3.062.712.562.440.672.332.111.781.370.79
YoY Growth--12.83%5.63%4.99%266.50%-71.42%10.53%18.74%29.96%73.39%25.24%
Dividend Yield--1.94%2.73%3.81%4.73%0.86%5.96%3.17%2.23%1.56%1.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,893.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)588.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,304.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)378.74236.71142.03
Cash Retained (M)1,304.901,304.901,304.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-378.74-236.71-142.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)926.161,068.191,162.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)178.76178.76178.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.185.986.51
LTM Dividend per Share3.293.293.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.185.986.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.479.279.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.56%4.56%5.56%
Fair Value$318.63$552.41$1,370.90
Upside / Downside59.75%176.96%587.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,893.701,980.082,070.402,164.852,263.602,366.852,437.85
Payout Ratio31.09%42.87%54.66%66.44%78.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)588.80848.941,131.591,438.261,770.552,130.162,255.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.56%4.56%5.56%
Year 1 PV (M)790.87798.51806.14
Year 2 PV (M)982.071,001.131,020.37
Year 3 PV (M)1,162.841,196.851,231.52
Year 4 PV (M)1,333.581,385.841,439.62
Year 5 PV (M)1,494.691,568.261,644.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,716.0550,064.7352,504.99
Equity Value (M)53,480.1056,015.3258,647.35
Shares Outstanding (M)178.76178.76178.76
Fair Value$299.17$313.36$328.08
Upside / Downside50.00%57.11%64.49%

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