DDM Analysis: HD

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$402.72 - $1,357.61	$658.98
Multi-Stage	$270.15 - $294.70	$282.20
Blended Fair Value	$470.59
Current Price	$378.35
Upside	24.38%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	8.43%	13.44%	8.98	8.43	7.84	7.03	6.49	5.99	4.73	4.24	3.42	3.05
YoY Growth	-	-	6.51%	7.63%	11.51%	8.28%	8.27%	26.66%	11.68%	23.74%	12.31%	19.80%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.48%	2.50%	2.63%	2.29%	1.97%	2.70%	2.37%	2.29%	2.22%	2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	14,582.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9,098.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	5,484.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,916.40	1,822.75	1,093.65
Cash Retained (M)	5,484.00	5,484.00	5,484.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,916.40	-1,822.75	-1,093.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,567.60	3,661.25	4,390.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	994.00	994.00	994.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.58	3.68	4.42
LTM Dividend per Share	9.15	9.15	9.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.58	3.68	4.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend	11.74	12.84	13.57
WACC / Discount Rate	8.57%	8.57%	8.57%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$402.72	$658.98	$1,357.61
Upside / Downside	6.44%	74.17%	258.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	14,582.00	15,529.83	16,539.27	17,614.32	18,759.25	19,978.60	20,577.96
Payout Ratio	62.39%	67.91%	73.44%	78.96%	84.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9,098.00	10,546.87	12,145.64	13,907.70	15,847.52	17,980.74	19,034.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.57%	8.57%	8.57%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	9,622.73	9,713.94	9,805.15
Year 2 PV (M)	10,110.45	10,303.03	10,497.42
Year 3 PV (M)	10,562.84	10,866.06	11,175.03
Year 4 PV (M)	10,981.49	11,403.81	11,838.19
Year 5 PV (M)	11,367.97	11,917.04	12,487.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)	215,880.52	226,307.63	237,133.81
Equity Value (M)	268,526.00	280,511.51	292,936.74
Shares Outstanding (M)	994.00	994.00	994.00
Fair Value	$270.15	$282.20	$294.70
Upside / Downside	-28.60%	-25.41%	-22.11%

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The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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