Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (GNTY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$107.46 - $625.99$199.26
Multi-Stage$63.37 - $69.29$66.28
Blended Fair Value$132.77
Current Price$42.44
Upside212.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.22%25.04%0.950.930.900.820.740.700.610.490.400.40
YoY Growth--1.94%3.61%9.52%11.08%5.23%14.71%26.41%20.52%1.97%287.83%
Dividend Yield--2.38%3.14%3.23%2.35%2.02%3.04%2.12%1.46%1.34%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.214.512.70
Cash Retained (M)24.9924.9924.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.21-4.51-2.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.7820.4822.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.4511.4511.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.551.791.95
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.551.791.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.752.91
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$107.46$199.26$625.99
Upside / Downside153.22%369.50%1,374.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.0638.4040.9043.5546.3849.4050.88
Payout Ratio30.69%42.55%54.41%66.28%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.0716.3422.2528.8736.2444.4647.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14.9915.1315.28
Year 2 PV (M)18.7319.0919.45
Year 3 PV (M)22.2922.9323.58
Year 4 PV (M)25.6826.6727.68
Year 5 PV (M)28.9030.3031.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)615.35645.08675.93
Equity Value (M)725.95759.19793.67
Shares Outstanding (M)11.4511.4511.45
Fair Value$63.37$66.28$69.29
Upside / Downside49.33%56.17%63.26%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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