DDM Analysis: GHLD

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$18.35 - $28.18	$22.93
Multi-Stage	$40.05 - $44.09	$42.03
Blended Fair Value	$32.48
Current Price	$19.94
Upside	62.89%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
DPS	-1.13%	0.00%	0.49	0.49	0.00	1.94	0.60	0.52	0.64	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.73%	0.00%	-100.00%	225.72%	14.36%	-18.75%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.22%	3.31%	0.00%	18.91%	4.19%	3.47%	4.27%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	126.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	46.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)	79.52

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	25.21	15.75	9.45
Cash Retained (M)	79.52	79.52	79.52
(-) Cash Required (M)	-25.21	-15.75	-9.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)	54.31	63.76	70.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	62.41	62.41	62.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.87	1.02	1.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.75	0.75	0.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.87	1.02	1.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.62	1.77	1.87
WACC / Discount Rate	6.63%	6.63%	6.63%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$18.35	$22.93	$28.18
Upside / Downside	-7.99%	14.99%	41.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	126.03	124.77	123.52	122.29	121.07	119.86	123.45
Payout Ratio	36.91%	47.53%	58.14%	68.76%	79.38%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	46.52	59.30	71.82	84.09	96.10	107.87	114.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.63%	6.63%	6.63%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	55.05	55.61	56.17
Year 2 PV (M)	61.90	63.17	64.45
Year 3 PV (M)	67.28	69.36	71.48
Year 4 PV (M)	71.38	74.34	77.39
Year 5 PV (M)	74.38	78.25	82.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,169.43	2,282.39	2,400.02
Equity Value (M)	2,499.42	2,623.13	2,751.81
Shares Outstanding (M)	62.41	62.41	62.41
Fair Value	$40.05	$42.03	$44.09
Upside / Downside	100.85%	110.79%	121.13%

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Guild Holdings Company (GHLD)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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