DDM Analysis: GGG

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$75.88 - $232.20	$120.99
Multi-Stage	$50.68 - $55.35	$52.97
Blended Fair Value	$86.98
Current Price	$84.71
Upside	2.68%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	10.08%	10.00%	1.01	0.93	0.83	0.75	0.69	0.62	0.52	0.47	0.43	0.41
YoY Growth	-	-	8.69%	11.40%	11.81%	8.66%	9.90%	19.81%	10.40%	9.59%	5.77%	4.62%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.21%	0.99%	1.14%	1.05%	0.95%	1.37%	1.05%	1.03%	1.37%	1.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	498.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	180.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)	317.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	99.61	62.26	37.35
Cash Retained (M)	317.23	317.23	317.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-99.61	-62.26	-37.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)	217.62	254.98	279.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	170.34	170.34	170.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.28	1.50	1.64
LTM Dividend per Share	1.06	1.06	1.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.28	1.50	1.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.34	2.56	2.70
WACC / Discount Rate	8.75%	8.75%	8.75%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$75.88	$120.99	$232.20
Upside / Downside	-10.42%	42.82%	174.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	498.06	530.43	564.91	601.63	640.74	682.39	702.86
Payout Ratio	36.31%	47.04%	57.78%	68.52%	79.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	180.83	249.54	326.43	412.25	507.86	614.15	650.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.75%	8.75%	8.75%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	227.30	229.46	231.61
Year 2 PV (M)	270.84	276.00	281.21
Year 3 PV (M)	311.57	320.52	329.63
Year 4 PV (M)	349.62	363.07	376.90
Year 5 PV (M)	385.12	403.72	423.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,087.67	7,430.01	7,785.45
Equity Value (M)	8,632.14	9,022.78	9,427.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	170.34	170.34	170.34
Fair Value	$50.68	$52.97	$55.35
Upside / Downside	-40.18%	-37.47%	-34.66%

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Graco Inc. (GGG)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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