DDM Analysis: GFF

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$17.07 - $32.11	$23.18
Multi-Stage	$15.66 - $17.05	$16.34
Blended Fair Value	$19.76
Current Price	$76.15
Upside	-74.05%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	22.26%	17.89%	0.85	0.76	2.86	2.70	0.37	0.31	0.29	1.06	0.22	0.19
YoY Growth	-	-	10.85%	-73.24%	5.63%	639.12%	17.96%	6.24%	-72.54%	382.30%	17.36%	14.95%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.11%	1.07%	4.69%	7.56%	1.38%	1.64%	1.55%	10.95%	1.17%	0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	51.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	39.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11.42

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.22	6.39	3.83
Cash Retained (M)	11.42	11.42	11.42
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.22	-6.39	-3.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1.20	5.03	7.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	46.84	46.84	46.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.11	0.16
LTM Dividend per Share	0.85	0.85	0.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.11	0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.87	0.95	1.01
WACC / Discount Rate	9.95%	9.95%	9.95%
Growth Rate	4.60%	5.60%	6.60%
Fair Value	$17.07	$23.18	$32.11
Upside / Downside	-77.59%	-69.57%	-57.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	51.11	53.97	56.99	60.18	63.55	67.10	69.12
Payout Ratio	77.66%	80.13%	82.60%	85.06%	87.53%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	39.69	43.25	47.07	51.19	55.62	60.39	63.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.95%	9.95%	9.95%
Growth Rate	4.60%	5.60%	6.60%
Year 1 PV (M)	38.96	39.33	39.71
Year 2 PV (M)	38.21	38.94	39.68
Year 3 PV (M)	37.43	38.52	39.62
Year 4 PV (M)	36.64	38.07	39.53
Year 5 PV (M)	35.84	37.59	39.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)	546.24	572.86	600.50
Equity Value (M)	733.33	765.31	798.44
Shares Outstanding (M)	46.84	46.84	46.84
Fair Value	$15.66	$16.34	$17.05
Upside / Downside	-79.44%	-78.54%	-77.61%

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Griffon Corporation (GFF)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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