DDM Analysis: GBDC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$60.64 - $281.59	$135.95
Multi-Stage	$33.75 - $36.81	$35.25
Blended Fair Value	$85.60
Current Price	$13.69
Upside	525.27%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	21.97%	19.89%	1.38	1.27	0.72	0.58	0.52	0.51	0.28	0.27	0.29	0.22
YoY Growth	-	-	8.88%	76.63%	23.36%	11.56%	1.98%	81.17%	5.97%	-7.45%	29.02%	-0.87%
Dividend Yield	-	-	10.11%	8.39%	4.77%	4.43%	3.39%	3.63%	1.53%	1.62%	1.59%	1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	376.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	368.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)	8.44

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	75.33	47.08	28.25
Cash Retained (M)	8.44	8.44	8.44
(-) Cash Required (M)	-75.33	-47.08	-28.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-66.89	-38.64	-19.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	266.00	266.00	266.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.25	-0.15	-0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	1.38	1.38	1.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.25	-0.15	-0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.13	1.24	1.31
WACC / Discount Rate	7.47%	7.47%	7.47%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$60.64	$135.95	$281.59
Upside / Downside	342.98%	893.03%	1,956.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	376.65	401.13	427.20	454.97	484.54	516.04	531.52
Payout Ratio	97.76%	96.21%	94.66%	93.10%	91.55%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	368.21	385.92	404.37	423.59	443.61	464.43	491.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.47%	7.47%	7.47%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	355.72	359.09	362.46
Year 2 PV (M)	343.56	350.11	356.71
Year 3 PV (M)	331.73	341.26	350.96
Year 4 PV (M)	320.22	332.54	345.20
Year 5 PV (M)	309.02	323.95	339.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,317.47	7,670.91	8,037.87
Equity Value (M)	8,977.73	9,377.85	9,792.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	266.00	266.00	266.00
Fair Value	$33.75	$35.25	$36.81
Upside / Downside	146.53%	157.52%	168.91%

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Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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