Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Acosta Verde, S.A.B. de C.V. (GAVA.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$159.34 - $230.74$194.03
Multi-Stage$259.92 - $285.86$272.64
Blended Fair Value$233.33
Current Price$179.00
Upside30.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%6.501.630.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--300.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.63%0.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,687.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)250.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,437.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)337.50210.94126.56
Cash Retained (M)1,437.481,437.481,437.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-337.50-210.94-126.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,099.981,226.551,310.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)76.9076.9076.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.3015.9517.05
LTM Dividend per Share3.253.253.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.3015.9517.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend17.5519.2020.30
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$159.34$194.03$230.74
Upside / Downside-10.98%8.40%28.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,687.481,670.611,653.901,637.361,620.991,604.781,652.92
Payout Ratio14.81%29.85%44.89%59.93%74.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)250.00498.71742.42981.201,215.141,444.301,528.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)453.76458.39463.02
Year 2 PV (M)614.61627.22639.96
Year 3 PV (M)739.08761.93785.25
Year 4 PV (M)832.78867.30902.87
Year 5 PV (M)900.61947.51996.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,448.1217,304.6218,196.42
Equity Value (M)19,988.9720,966.9621,983.87
Shares Outstanding (M)76.9076.9076.90
Fair Value$259.92$272.64$285.86
Upside / Downside45.21%52.31%59.70%

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