DDM Analysis: FSBW

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$167.15 - $826.42	$352.58
Multi-Stage	$91.01 - $99.53	$95.19
Blended Fair Value	$223.88
Current Price	$39.92
Upside	460.83%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	23.68%	27.93%	1.06	1.00	0.91	0.59	0.46	0.37	0.25	0.17	0.14	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	6.45%	9.41%	54.19%	28.76%	25.14%	49.14%	43.88%	22.11%	31.96%	17.33%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.80%	2.99%	3.04%	1.91%	1.37%	2.04%	0.98%	0.64%	0.75%	0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	32.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	10.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)	22.04

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	6.46	4.04	2.42
Cash Retained (M)	22.04	22.04	22.04
(-) Cash Required (M)	-6.46	-4.04	-2.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)	15.58	18.00	19.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	7.77	7.77	7.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.00	2.32	2.52
LTM Dividend per Share	1.32	1.32	1.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.00	2.32	2.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.32	3.64	3.84
WACC / Discount Rate	7.60%	7.60%	7.60%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$167.15	$352.58	$826.42
Upside / Downside	318.70%	783.21%	1,970.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	32.31	34.41	36.64	39.03	41.56	44.26	45.59
Payout Ratio	31.78%	43.43%	55.07%	66.71%	78.36%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	10.27	14.94	20.18	26.04	32.57	39.84	42.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.60%	7.60%	7.60%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	13.76	13.89	14.02
Year 2 PV (M)	17.11	17.43	17.76
Year 3 PV (M)	20.32	20.90	21.49
Year 4 PV (M)	23.40	24.30	25.22
Year 5 PV (M)	26.35	27.62	28.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)	606.63	635.93	666.36
Equity Value (M)	707.56	740.07	773.80
Shares Outstanding (M)	7.77	7.77	7.77
Fair Value	$91.01	$95.19	$99.53
Upside / Downside	127.97%	138.45%	149.31%

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FS Bancorp, Inc. (FSBW)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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