Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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FSA Group Limited (FSA.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.76 - $18.87$14.98
Multi-Stage$23.06 - $25.40$24.21
Blended Fair Value$19.59
Current Price$0.85
Upside2,218.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.25%-0.16%0.080.080.070.070.070.070.070.070.080.08
YoY Growth---8.69%14.60%2.37%7.80%-3.20%1.28%-7.09%-10.25%6.27%-1.87%
Dividend Yield--8.98%10.20%7.40%6.21%6.32%7.85%6.57%5.15%5.91%7.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.2017.0010.20
Cash Retained (M)123.28123.28123.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.20-17.00-10.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.07106.28113.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)121.37121.37121.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.790.880.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.790.880.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.981.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-0.95%0.05%1.05%
Fair Value$11.76$14.98$18.87
Upside / Downside1,291.75%1,672.33%2,133.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136.02136.08136.15136.21136.27136.33140.42
Payout Ratio9.37%25.49%41.62%57.75%73.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.7434.6956.6678.66100.67122.70129.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-0.95%0.05%1.05%
Year 1 PV (M)32.2232.5532.87
Year 2 PV (M)48.8849.8750.87
Year 3 PV (M)63.0164.9466.90
Year 4 PV (M)74.9077.9781.13
Year 5 PV (M)84.7889.1593.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,495.172,623.702,757.47
Equity Value (M)2,798.962,938.173,082.95
Shares Outstanding (M)121.37121.37121.37
Fair Value$23.06$24.21$25.40
Upside / Downside2,629.06%2,764.80%2,905.96%

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