DDM Analysis: FLMN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.45 - $5.09	$4.24
Multi-Stage	$6.63 - $7.27	$6.94
Blended Fair Value	$5.59
Current Price	$6.74
Upside	-17.10%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.23	0.59	3.02	3.12	0.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-100.00%	-61.26%	-80.49%	-3.19%	580.34%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	5.08%	27.38%	33.60%	27.34%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	22.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	18.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4.09

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4.50	2.81	1.69
Cash Retained (M)	4.09	4.09	4.09
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4.50	-2.81	-1.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-0.41	1.28	2.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	51.46	51.46	51.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.02	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.36	0.36	0.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.02	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.35	0.38	0.40
WACC / Discount Rate	7.94%	7.94%	7.94%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$3.45	$4.24	$5.09
Upside / Downside	-48.85%	-37.17%	-24.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	22.49	22.26	22.04	21.82	21.60	21.39	22.03
Payout Ratio	81.83%	83.46%	85.10%	86.73%	88.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	18.40	18.58	18.76	18.93	19.09	19.25	20.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.94%	7.94%	7.94%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	17.04	17.22	17.39
Year 2 PV (M)	15.78	16.10	16.43
Year 3 PV (M)	14.60	15.05	15.51
Year 4 PV (M)	13.50	14.06	14.64
Year 5 PV (M)	12.49	13.14	13.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)	267.66	281.59	296.11
Equity Value (M)	341.06	357.16	373.88
Shares Outstanding (M)	51.46	51.46	51.46
Fair Value	$6.63	$6.94	$7.27
Upside / Downside	-1.67%	2.97%	7.80%

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Falcon Minerals Corporation (FLMN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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