DDM Analysis: FCR-UN.TO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.58 - $10.66	$9.11
Multi-Stage	$14.60 - $16.02	$15.30
Blended Fair Value	$12.21
Current Price	$18.15
Upside	-32.75%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-2.09%	0.31%	0.86	0.86	0.55	0.48	0.88	0.96	1.00	0.98	0.94	0.89
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.15%	57.35%	13.74%	-45.40%	-7.80%	-4.15%	1.45%	4.92%	5.04%	6.93%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.22%	5.55%	3.49%	2.69%	5.35%	7.03%	4.67%	4.90%	4.69%	4.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	261.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	185.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)	75.33

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	52.22	32.64	19.58
Cash Retained (M)	75.33	75.33	75.33
(-) Cash Required (M)	-52.22	-32.64	-19.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)	23.11	42.69	55.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	212.86	212.86	212.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.20	0.26
LTM Dividend per Share	0.87	0.87	0.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.20	0.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.98	1.07	1.13
WACC / Discount Rate	8.74%	8.74%	8.74%
Growth Rate	-3.72%	-2.72%	-1.72%
Fair Value	$7.58	$9.11	$10.66
Upside / Downside	-58.21%	-49.79%	-41.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	261.09	254.00	247.10	240.38	233.85	227.50	234.32
Payout Ratio	71.15%	74.92%	78.69%	82.46%	86.23%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	185.76	190.29	194.44	198.22	201.65	204.75	216.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.74%	8.74%	8.74%
Growth Rate	-3.72%	-2.72%	-1.72%
Year 1 PV (M)	173.20	175.00	176.79
Year 2 PV (M)	161.07	164.44	167.83
Year 3 PV (M)	149.46	154.16	158.96
Year 4 PV (M)	138.39	144.22	150.25
Year 5 PV (M)	127.89	134.67	141.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,358.71	2,483.77	2,614.08
Equity Value (M)	3,108.71	3,256.26	3,409.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	212.86	212.86	212.86
Fair Value	$14.60	$15.30	$16.02
Upside / Downside	-19.53%	-15.71%	-11.74%

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Financial Statements

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First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCR-UN.TO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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