DDM Analysis: EXPD

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$93.37 - $174.73	$126.53
Multi-Stage	$99.14 - $108.57	$103.77
Blended Fair Value	$115.15
Current Price	$122.59
Upside	-6.07%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.66%	5.06%	1.48	1.46	1.55	1.42	1.27	1.23	1.13	1.09	1.05	0.98
YoY Growth	-	-	1.02%	-5.51%	9.21%	11.91%	2.57%	8.74%	4.22%	3.70%	6.97%	8.86%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.23%	1.23%	1.40%	1.37%	1.18%	1.85%	1.46%	1.72%	1.86%	2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	845.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	205.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)	639.92

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	169.10	105.69	63.41
Cash Retained (M)	639.92	639.92	639.92
(-) Cash Required (M)	-169.10	-105.69	-63.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)	470.81	534.23	576.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	138.19	138.19	138.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.41	3.87	4.17
LTM Dividend per Share	1.49	1.49	1.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.41	3.87	4.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.89	5.35	5.66
WACC / Discount Rate	8.46%	8.46%	8.46%
Growth Rate	3.06%	4.06%	5.06%
Fair Value	$93.37	$126.53	$174.73
Upside / Downside	-23.84%	3.21%	42.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	845.50	879.79	915.47	952.59	991.22	1,031.42	1,062.36
Payout Ratio	24.32%	37.45%	50.59%	63.73%	76.86%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	205.59	329.50	463.13	607.05	761.89	928.28	982.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.46%	8.46%	8.46%
Growth Rate	3.06%	4.06%	5.06%
Year 1 PV (M)	300.89	303.81	306.73
Year 2 PV (M)	386.18	393.71	401.32
Year 3 PV (M)	462.23	475.82	489.67
Year 4 PV (M)	529.75	550.61	572.08
Year 5 PV (M)	589.39	618.54	648.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,431.52	11,997.02	12,584.68
Equity Value (M)	13,699.95	14,339.51	15,003.31
Shares Outstanding (M)	138.19	138.19	138.19
Fair Value	$99.14	$103.77	$108.57
Upside / Downside	-19.13%	-15.35%	-11.44%

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Financial Statements

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Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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