DDM Analysis: ESSA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$61.28 - $307.18	$127.70
Multi-Stage	$37.32 - $40.83	$39.05
Blended Fair Value	$83.37
Current Price	$18.85
Upside	342.31%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.72%	7.75%	0.62	0.61	0.55	0.49	0.48	0.45	0.41	0.40	0.39	0.37
YoY Growth	-	-	0.79%	11.11%	12.33%	2.96%	6.87%	9.05%	2.14%	2.22%	5.67%	26.64%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.18%	3.07%	2.65%	2.84%	3.19%	2.64%	2.63%	2.57%	2.50%	2.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	14.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	8.91

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.96	1.85	1.11
Cash Retained (M)	8.91	8.91	8.91
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.96	-1.85	-1.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5.95	7.06	7.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	9.53	9.53	9.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.62	0.74	0.82
LTM Dividend per Share	0.62	0.62	0.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.62	0.74	0.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.24	1.36	1.44
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	5.02%	6.02%	7.02%
Fair Value	$61.28	$127.70	$307.18
Upside / Downside	225.11%	577.47%	1,529.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	14.78	15.67	16.62	17.62	18.68	19.80	20.40
Payout Ratio	39.75%	49.80%	59.85%	69.90%	79.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5.88	7.81	9.95	12.32	14.93	17.82	18.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	5.02%	6.02%	7.02%
Year 1 PV (M)	7.22	7.29	7.35
Year 2 PV (M)	8.50	8.66	8.83
Year 3 PV (M)	9.73	10.01	10.30
Year 4 PV (M)	10.91	11.33	11.76
Year 5 PV (M)	12.04	12.62	13.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)	307.24	322.15	337.63
Equity Value (M)	355.63	372.06	389.10
Shares Outstanding (M)	9.53	9.53	9.53
Fair Value	$37.32	$39.05	$40.83
Upside / Downside	98.00%	107.14%	116.63%

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ESSA Bancorp, Inc. (ESSA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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