DDM Analysis: ERAA.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2,948.77 - $12,939.86	$7,031.47
Multi-Stage	$1,503.51 - $1,644.80	$1,572.86
Blended Fair Value	$4,302.17
Current Price	$432.00
Upside	895.87%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	10.96%	177.18%	17.00	19.00	22.96	13.90	0.00	10.11	6.98	3.67	3.67	3.67
YoY Growth	-	-	-10.53%	-17.23%	65.15%	0.00%	-100.00%	44.74%	90.00%	0.00%	0.00%	578,566.58%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.21%	4.30%	4.41%	2.40%	0.00%	5.40%	1.91%	1.45%	3.04%	2.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,026,957.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	299,886.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)	727,070.83

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	205,391.41	128,369.63	77,021.78
Cash Retained (M)	727,070.83	727,070.83	727,070.83
(-) Cash Required (M)	-205,391.41	-128,369.63	-77,021.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)	521,679.42	598,701.20	650,049.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	15,783.49	15,783.49	15,783.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	33.05	37.93	41.19
LTM Dividend per Share	19.00	19.00	19.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	33.05	37.93	41.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend	52.05	56.93	60.19
WACC / Discount Rate	7.36%	7.36%	7.36%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$2,948.77	$7,031.47	$12,939.86
Upside / Downside	582.59%	1,527.66%	2,895.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,026,957.04	1,093,709.25	1,164,800.35	1,240,512.37	1,321,145.67	1,407,020.14	1,449,230.75
Payout Ratio	29.20%	41.36%	53.52%	65.68%	77.84%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	299,886.21	452,370.72	623,411.19	814,775.65	1,028,383.59	1,266,318.13	1,340,538.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.36%	7.36%	7.36%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	417,393.34	421,349.67	425,306.01
Year 2 PV (M)	530,733.68	540,842.66	551,047.01
Year 3 PV (M)	640,016.43	658,389.00	677,109.86
Year 4 PV (M)	745,348.26	774,012.25	803,495.15
Year 5 PV (M)	846,833.35	887,735.72	930,203.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)	20,550,311.41	21,542,899.14	22,573,475.53
Equity Value (M)	23,730,636.46	24,825,228.44	25,960,637.08
Shares Outstanding (M)	15,783.49	15,783.49	15,783.49
Fair Value	$1,503.51	$1,572.86	$1,644.80
Upside / Downside	248.03%	264.09%	280.74%

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Financial Statements

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PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk (ERAA.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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