Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (EPRT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.08 - $163.46$65.99
Multi-Stage$24.54 - $26.77$25.64
Blended Fair Value$45.81
Current Price$29.76
Upside53.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS25.59%0.00%1.030.870.730.580.450.330.070.520.050.00
YoY Growth--18.68%18.73%26.13%29.90%35.32%354.24%-86.10%907.25%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.17%3.32%2.95%2.30%1.96%2.53%0.37%3.84%0.38%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)240.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)169.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.0630.0418.02
Cash Retained (M)70.7070.7070.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.06-30.04-18.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.6440.6652.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)193.20193.20193.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.210.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.880.880.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.210.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.001.091.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.26%8.26%8.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.08$65.99$163.46
Upside / Downside27.97%121.72%449.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)240.32255.94272.57290.29309.16329.25339.13
Payout Ratio70.58%74.46%78.35%82.23%86.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)169.61190.58213.55238.71266.23296.33313.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.26%8.26%8.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)174.39176.04177.70
Year 2 PV (M)178.81182.22185.66
Year 3 PV (M)182.90188.15193.50
Year 4 PV (M)186.66193.84201.22
Year 5 PV (M)190.11199.30208.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,828.584,013.504,205.50
Equity Value (M)4,741.464,953.055,172.41
Shares Outstanding (M)193.20193.20193.20
Fair Value$24.54$25.64$26.77
Upside / Downside-17.53%-13.85%-10.04%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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