Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ebro Foods, S.A. (EBRO.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.78 - $155.72$89.86
Multi-Stage$72.35 - $79.26$75.74
Blended Fair Value$82.80
Current Price$17.30
Upside378.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.71%4.90%0.810.630.631.212.580.640.620.610.560.67
YoY Growth--27.46%0.85%-48.02%-53.26%303.07%3.16%1.91%9.45%-16.54%33.44%
Dividend Yield--5.08%4.08%4.28%7.15%13.64%3.32%3.56%3.13%2.80%3.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)396.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)308.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)88.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)79.3449.5929.75
Cash Retained (M)88.0988.0988.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-79.34-49.59-29.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.7538.5058.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)153.87153.87153.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.250.38
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.250.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.062.262.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Fair Value$58.78$89.86$155.72
Upside / Downside239.80%419.41%800.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)396.69411.39426.64442.45458.85475.85490.13
Payout Ratio77.79%80.24%82.68%85.12%87.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)308.60330.08352.73376.60401.76428.27453.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Year 1 PV (M)307.49310.49313.48
Year 2 PV (M)306.11312.10318.15
Year 3 PV (M)304.47313.45322.60
Year 4 PV (M)302.58314.54326.85
Year 5 PV (M)300.48315.39330.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,610.3510,087.4110,583.22
Equity Value (M)11,131.4811,653.3712,195.19
Shares Outstanding (M)153.87153.87153.87
Fair Value$72.35$75.74$79.26
Upside / Downside318.18%337.79%358.14%

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