DDM Analysis: DVN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$95.72 - $239.83	$143.77
Multi-Stage	$66.50 - $72.66	$69.52
Blended Fair Value	$106.65
Current Price	$35.06
Upside	204.19%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	46.26%	9.27%	1.48	2.93	5.32	2.07	0.40	0.22	0.23	0.20	0.35	0.62
YoY Growth	-	-	-49.57%	-45.01%	156.96%	411.67%	83.57%	-6.04%	17.32%	-42.53%	-44.19%	2.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.95%	5.74%	10.51%	3.50%	1.85%	3.19%	0.74%	0.63%	0.83%	2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,719.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	613.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,106.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	543.80	339.88	203.93
Cash Retained (M)	2,106.00	2,106.00	2,106.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-543.80	-339.88	-203.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,562.20	1,766.13	1,902.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	635.00	635.00	635.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.46	2.78	3.00
LTM Dividend per Share	0.97	0.97	0.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.46	2.78	3.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.43	3.75	3.96
WACC / Discount Rate	9.28%	9.28%	9.28%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$95.72	$143.77	$239.83
Upside / Downside	173.03%	310.08%	584.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,719.00	2,895.74	3,083.96	3,284.42	3,497.90	3,725.27	3,837.02
Payout Ratio	22.55%	36.04%	49.53%	63.02%	76.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	613.00	1,043.51	1,527.39	2,069.77	2,676.21	3,352.74	3,549.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.28%	9.28%	9.28%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	945.97	954.93	963.90
Year 2 PV (M)	1,255.20	1,279.11	1,303.24
Year 3 PV (M)	1,541.93	1,586.19	1,631.30
Year 4 PV (M)	1,807.35	1,876.86	1,948.35
Year 5 PV (M)	2,052.59	2,151.74	2,254.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)	34,625.98	36,298.43	38,034.88
Equity Value (M)	42,229.02	44,147.25	46,136.34
Shares Outstanding (M)	635.00	635.00	635.00
Fair Value	$66.50	$69.52	$72.66
Upside / Downside	89.68%	98.30%	107.23%

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Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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