DDM Analysis: DHL.DE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$44.39 - $79.92	$59.25
Multi-Stage	$39.41 - $42.91	$41.13
Blended Fair Value	$50.19
Current Price	$37.94
Upside	32.29%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.86%	8.40%	1.88	1.91	1.91	1.45	1.23	1.23	1.22	1.10	0.89	0.89
YoY Growth	-	-	-1.63%	0.00%	31.80%	17.65%	0.21%	0.71%	10.94%	23.66%	-0.29%	6.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.76%	4.87%	4.43%	3.33%	2.64%	4.96%	4.14%	3.10%	2.77%	3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,538.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,123.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,415.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	707.60	442.25	265.35
Cash Retained (M)	1,415.00	1,415.00	1,415.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-707.60	-442.25	-265.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)	707.40	972.75	1,149.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,154.69	1,154.69	1,154.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.61	0.84	1.00
LTM Dividend per Share	1.84	1.84	1.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.61	0.84	1.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.45	2.68	2.83
WACC / Discount Rate	10.62%	10.62%	10.62%
Growth Rate	4.83%	5.83%	6.83%
Fair Value	$44.39	$59.25	$79.92
Upside / Downside	17.01%	56.18%	110.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,538.00	3,744.24	3,962.51	4,193.50	4,437.95	4,696.66	4,837.56
Payout Ratio	60.01%	66.00%	72.00%	78.00%	84.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,123.00	2,471.37	2,853.14	3,271.02	3,727.93	4,226.99	4,474.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.62%	10.62%	10.62%
Growth Rate	4.83%	5.83%	6.83%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,213.04	2,234.15	2,255.26
Year 2 PV (M)	2,287.85	2,331.71	2,375.98
Year 3 PV (M)	2,348.77	2,416.63	2,485.78
Year 4 PV (M)	2,397.04	2,489.83	2,585.28
Year 5 PV (M)	2,433.84	2,552.16	2,675.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)	33,822.29	35,466.57	37,174.19
Equity Value (M)	45,502.83	47,491.04	49,551.53
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,154.69	1,154.69	1,154.69
Fair Value	$39.41	$41.13	$42.91
Upside / Downside	3.87%	8.41%	13.11%

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Financial Statements

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Deutsche Post AG (DHL.DE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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