DDM Analysis: DAL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$57.49 - $84.90	$70.62
Multi-Stage	$71.65 - $78.57	$75.05
Blended Fair Value	$72.83
Current Price	$56.75
Upside	28.34%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-20.01%	2.49%	0.49	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.40	1.50	1.39	1.12	0.78	0.55
YoY Growth	-	-	150.78%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-73.47%	7.81%	24.35%	43.61%	41.78%	43.03%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.13%	0.41%	0.00%	0.00%	0.83%	5.27%	2.67%	2.04%	1.70%	1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,630.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	414.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,216.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	926.00	578.75	347.25
Cash Retained (M)	4,216.00	4,216.00	4,216.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-926.00	-578.75	-347.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,290.00	3,637.25	3,868.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	652.25	652.25	652.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.04	5.58	5.93
LTM Dividend per Share	0.63	0.63	0.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.04	5.58	5.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.68	6.21	6.57
WACC / Discount Rate	10.42%	10.42%	10.42%
Growth Rate	0.49%	1.49%	2.49%
Fair Value	$57.49	$70.62	$84.90
Upside / Downside	1.30%	24.44%	49.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,630.00	4,699.00	4,769.04	4,840.12	4,912.25	4,985.46	5,135.03
Payout Ratio	8.94%	25.15%	41.37%	57.58%	73.79%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	414.00	1,181.96	1,972.71	2,786.78	3,624.67	4,486.92	4,749.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.42%	10.42%	10.42%
Growth Rate	0.49%	1.49%	2.49%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,059.90	1,070.45	1,081.00
Year 2 PV (M)	1,586.32	1,618.05	1,650.09
Year 3 PV (M)	2,009.53	2,070.12	2,131.91
Year 4 PV (M)	2,343.81	2,438.51	2,536.05
Year 5 PV (M)	2,601.76	2,733.81	2,871.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	37,134.36	39,019.16	40,979.72
Equity Value (M)	46,735.68	48,950.10	51,249.95
Shares Outstanding (M)	652.25	652.25	652.25
Fair Value	$71.65	$75.05	$78.57
Upside / Downside	26.26%	32.24%	38.46%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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