DDM Analysis: CVX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$145.93 - $335.28	$213.02
Multi-Stage	$148.55 - $162.17	$155.24
Blended Fair Value	$184.13
Current Price	$155.29
Upside	18.57%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.66%	4.06%	6.67	6.41	6.20	5.76	5.46	5.07	4.81	4.60	4.54	4.52
YoY Growth	-	-	4.09%	3.36%	7.75%	5.47%	7.72%	5.38%	4.55%	1.25%	0.50%	0.81%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.99%	4.03%	3.80%	3.53%	5.21%	6.99%	3.85%	4.03%	4.23%	4.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	12,780.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12,187.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	593.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,556.00	1,597.50	958.50
Cash Retained (M)	593.00	593.00	593.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,556.00	-1,597.50	-958.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-1,963.00	-1,004.50	-365.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,768.66	1,768.66	1,768.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-1.11	-0.57	-0.21
LTM Dividend per Share	6.89	6.89	6.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-1.11	-0.57	-0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.78	6.32	6.68
WACC / Discount Rate	7.77%	7.77%	7.77%
Growth Rate	3.66%	4.66%	5.66%
Fair Value	$145.93	$213.02	$335.28
Upside / Downside	-6.03%	37.18%	115.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	12,780.00	13,375.98	13,999.75	14,652.61	15,335.92	16,051.09	16,532.63
Payout Ratio	95.36%	94.29%	93.22%	92.14%	91.07%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12,187.00	12,611.94	13,050.00	13,501.50	13,966.73	14,445.98	15,292.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.77%	7.77%	7.77%
Growth Rate	3.66%	4.66%	5.66%
Year 1 PV (M)	11,590.85	11,702.66	11,814.47
Year 2 PV (M)	11,022.43	11,236.12	11,451.85
Year 3 PV (M)	10,480.51	10,786.75	11,098.90
Year 4 PV (M)	9,963.88	10,353.95	10,755.36
Year 5 PV (M)	9,471.40	9,937.14	10,421.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	210,207.76	220,544.23	231,283.37
Equity Value (M)	262,736.83	274,560.84	286,824.97
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,768.66	1,768.66	1,768.66
Fair Value	$148.55	$155.24	$162.17
Upside / Downside	-4.34%	-0.03%	4.43%

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Ticker ⇵	Company ⇵	Dividend Yield % ▼	Dividend Per Share ⇵	Payout Ratio % ⇵
112610.KS	CS Wind Corporation	2.43%	$982.89	21.73%
300452.SZ	Anhui Sunhere Pharmaceutical Excipients Co.,Ltd.	2.43%	$0.33	58.46%
603599.SS	Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd.	2.43%	$0.28	35.02%
605286.SS	Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co., Ltd.	2.43%	$0.99	75.51%
9569.SR	Almuneef Company for Trade, Industry, Agriculture and Contracting	2.43%	$0.20	19.26%
ALV	Autoliv, Inc.	2.43%	$2.97	30.32%
KEPEN.AT	Flour Mills Kepenos S.A.	2.43%	$0.05	39.82%
MSAB-B.ST	Micro Systemation AB (publ)	2.43%	$1.50	65.33%
NEOE3.SA	Neoenergia S.A.	2.43%	$0.77	21.26%
OV8.SI	Sheng Siong Group Ltd	2.43%	$0.06	66.54%
VIL.PA	VIEL & Cie, S.A.	2.43%	$0.40	12.44%
002236.SZ	Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$0.46	38.43%
006730.KQ	Seobu T&D Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$309.73	27.66%
071050.KS	Korea Investment Holdings Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$3,984.93	13.09%
0DQK.L	Beter Bed Holding N.V.	2.42%	$0.15	53.98%
2409.TW	AUO Corporation	2.42%	$0.31	41.22%
300453.SZ	Jiangxi Sanxin Medtec Co.,Ltd.	2.42%	$0.21	45.08%
600064.SS	Nanjing Gaoke Company Limited	2.42%	$0.21	15.60%
601236.SS	Hongta Securities Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$0.20	95.69%
9550.SR	Sure Global Tech Company	2.42%	$1.52	28.67%
9562.SR	Foods Gate Trading Co.	2.42%	$0.67	13.40%
AEONTS-R.BK	AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Public Company Limited	2.42%	$2.60	21.04%
NMAN.ST	Nederman Holding AB (publ)	2.42%	$4.00	47.45%
SALIK.AE	Salik Company P.J.S.C.	2.42%	$0.16	83.74%
SKMO.ST	Skåne-möllan AB (publ)	2.42%	$1.40	96.86%
001130.KS	Daehan Flour Mills Co.,Ltd	2.41%	$3,470.92	10.83%
080160.KQ	Modetour Network Inc.	2.41%	$249.37	24.80%
0U96.L	Everest Re Group, Ltd.	2.41%	$8.07	61.23%
3591.T	Wacoal Holdings Corp.	2.41%	$106.27	49.77%
601966.SS	Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.,Ltd.	2.41%	$0.35	42.43%
7951.T	Yamaha Corporation	2.41%	$26.35	66.95%
BORG.ST	Björn Borg AB (publ)	2.41%	$1.50	43.49%
EIOF.OL	Eidesvik Offshore ASA	2.41%	$0.30	28.32%
ETTE.HE	Etteplan Oyj	2.41%	$0.23	71.21%
ZZ-B.ST	Zinzino AB (publ)	2.41%	$3.76	58.64%
002968.SZ	New Dazheng Property Group Co., Ltd.	2.40%	$0.29	59.28%
0NZN.L	Robertet S.A.	2.40%	$21.10	23.60%
4015.SR	Jamjoom Pharmaceuticals Factory Company	2.40%	$3.46	54.14%
7703.TWO	Rayzher	2.40%	$5.49	59.71%
BBL.AX	Brisbane Broncos Limited	2.40%	$0.04	25.15%
002158.SZ	Shanghai Hanbell Precise Machinery Co., Ltd.	2.39%	$0.60	60.14%
004690.KS	Samchully Co.,Ltd	2.39%	$3,000.02	10.30%
0GVS.L	Catena AB (publ)	2.39%	$8.76	32.84%
300577.SZ	Anhui Korrun Co., Ltd.	2.39%	$0.51	36.22%
3044.TW	Tripod Technology Corporation	2.39%	$7.48	42.14%
603080.SS	Xinjiang Torch Gas Co., Ltd	2.39%	$0.57	43.55%
6780.TWO	Study King Co., Ltd.	2.39%	$0.80	89.60%
6804.T	Hosiden Corporation	2.39%	$59.44	25.81%
KBLM.JK	PT Kabelindo Murni Tbk	2.39%	$8.08	12.05%
SCANFL.HE	Scanfil Oyj	2.39%	$0.24	42.33%

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Chevron Corporation (CVX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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