DDM Analysis: CSCO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.58 - $34.13	$28.02
Multi-Stage	$36.53 - $40.02	$38.24
Blended Fair Value	$33.13
Current Price	$70.63
Upside	-53.09%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	1.36%	4.65%	1.61	1.60	1.58	1.56	1.54	1.50	1.50	1.49	1.38	1.19
YoY Growth	-	-	0.83%	1.30%	1.25%	0.99%	2.44%	0.62%	0.18%	8.29%	16.02%	16.25%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.28%	2.86%	3.06%	3.41%	2.75%	3.88%	3.19%	3.37%	4.00%	3.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	10,329.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6,462.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,867.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,065.80	1,291.13	774.68
Cash Retained (M)	3,867.00	3,867.00	3,867.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,065.80	-1,291.13	-774.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,801.20	2,575.88	3,092.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,998.50	3,998.50	3,998.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.45	0.64	0.77
LTM Dividend per Share	1.62	1.62	1.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.45	0.64	0.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.07	2.26	2.39
WACC / Discount Rate	8.53%	8.53%	8.53%
Growth Rate	-0.57%	0.43%	1.43%
Fair Value	$22.58	$28.02	$34.13
Upside / Downside	-68.04%	-60.33%	-51.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	10,329.00	10,373.28	10,417.76	10,462.42	10,507.28	10,552.32	10,868.89
Payout Ratio	62.56%	68.05%	73.54%	79.02%	84.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6,462.00	7,058.95	7,660.91	8,267.90	8,879.95	9,497.09	10,053.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.53%	8.53%	8.53%
Growth Rate	-0.57%	0.43%	1.43%
Year 1 PV (M)	6,439.37	6,504.14	6,568.90
Year 2 PV (M)	6,375.09	6,503.97	6,634.14
Year 3 PV (M)	6,276.31	6,467.59	6,662.72
Year 4 PV (M)	6,149.26	6,400.40	6,659.16
Year 5 PV (M)	5,999.38	6,307.20	6,627.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)	114,841.21	120,733.60	126,865.41
Equity Value (M)	146,080.62	152,916.90	160,017.86
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,998.50	3,998.50	3,998.50
Fair Value	$36.53	$38.24	$40.02
Upside / Downside	-48.27%	-45.85%	-43.34%

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Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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